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ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was solid with total revenue of $23.03M (+27.6% YoY), driven by $5.0M license milestone from Health Canada approval; net product revenue was $17.40M (flat YoY) and EPS improved to -$0.36 from -$0.56 YoY .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $23.03M vs $17.71M estimate; EPS -$0.36 vs -$0.40 estimate; strength came from license revenue and disciplined OpEx; product sales were broadly stable QoQ and YoY .
  • Guidance/narrative maintained: cash runway to 2H 2026; LOTIS-5 PFS events targeted by end-2025; management clarified data readout could be late-2025 or early-2026 due to PFS-driven timing .
  • Clinical catalysts likely to drive stock: LOTIS-7 combination data at EHA/ICML (ORR 95.5%, CR 90.9%) and continued momentum toward potential compendia listing; regulatory meetings planned 2H 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong clinical efficacy signals: LOTIS-7 ZYNLONTA + glofitamab ORR 95.5% and CR 90.9% (22 evaluable); safety manageable and consistent with known profiles; management believes potential “best-in-class combination” .
    • Revenue beat on license milestone; adjusted net loss improved to -$24.0M vs -$31.1M YoY; adjusted OpEx down 5% YoY (non-GAAP), reflecting disciplined spend .
    • Cash runway reaffirmed into 2H 2026; upcoming EHA/ICML presentations and LOTIS-5 progress toward PFS events are key de-risking catalysts .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Core product revenue flat: ZYNLONTA net product revenue $17.4M vs $17.8M YoY; growth remains constrained pending earlier-line/combination adoption .
    • Operating loss remains large: loss from operations -$28.5M (EBIT margin -123.6%); heavy interest expense (-$12.23M) and deferred royalty obligation interest (-$8.45M) weigh on bottom line .
    • Program discontinuation: ADCT-602 (CD22) in r/r B-ALL discontinued; limited cost impact but underscores pipeline prioritization and need for partnering in preclinical assets .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$18.464 $16.910 $23.033
Product Revenues ($USD Millions)$18.016 $16.386 $17.404
License Revenues and Royalties ($USD Millions)$0.448 $0.524 $5.629
Net Income ($USD Millions)-$43.969 -$30.727 -$38.602
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)-$0.42 -$0.29 -$0.36
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)-$35.564 -$32.436 -$28.464
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$54.028 $49.346 $51.497
EBIT Margin %-192.6% (calc)-191.9% (calc)-123.6% (calc)
Notes: EBIT Margin % = Loss from operations / Total revenue; calculations based on cited numbers.

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$17.71* (6 est.)$23.03 +$5.32M; +30.1%
EPS ($USD)-$0.403* (6 est.)-$0.36 +$0.043
Disclosures: *Values retrieved from S&P Global. Number of estimates shown where available.

Segment/Revenue Composition

ComponentQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Product Revenues ($USD Millions)$17.848 $16.386 $17.404
License Revenues & Royalties ($USD Millions)$0.205 $0.524 $5.629
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$18.053 $16.910 $23.033

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPIQ1 2025Context
LOTIS-7 ORR (%)95.5% (21/22)
LOTIS-7 CR (%)90.9% (20/22)
Safety (CRS/ICANS)CRS Grade 1/2: 29.0%/9.7%; ICANS Grade 1/2: 0%/6.5%; no Grade ≥3 CRS/ICANS at cutoff
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$194.7
Accounts Receivable ($USD Millions)$31.8

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayThrough 2H 2026Into 2H 2026 (as of FY24 Q4) Into 2H 2026 Maintained
LOTIS-5 PFS EventsBy end of 2025Update in late 2025 once PFS events reached On track to reach PFS events by end-2025; topline after events; could be late-2025/early-2026 (clarified on call) Maintained; timing clarified
LOTIS-7 Enrollment Target40 patients dose expansionComplete 40 by Q2 2025 40 patients reached; assessing expansion to ~100 for publication/guidelines Raised ambition
Regulatory Meetings (LOTIS-7 path)2025Not specifiedPlan to meet regulators in 2H 2025; compendia and regulatory paths in parallel New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q3 2024; Q-1: Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Product performance (ZYNLONTA revenue)Q3: $18.0M, improving price and GTN ; Q4: $16.4M; brand profitable in 2024 Q1: $17.4M; broadly stable YoY/QoQ Stable; awaiting catalysts
LOTIS-7 efficacy/safetyQ3: interim update planned ; Q4: initial data ORR 94%, CR 72% Q1: ORR 95.5%, CR 90.9%; plan expansion to ~100 patients and compendia strategy Strengthening efficacy; pathway forming
LOTIS-5 progressQ3: full enrollment expected by YE 2024 ; Q4: full enrollment achieved; late-2025 update Q1: on track for PFS events by end-2025; readout late-2025/early-2026 On track; timing clarified
Regulatory/Compendia strategySparse prior detailMeetings with regulators planned 2H 2025; compendia in parallel More explicit engagement
Pipeline prioritizationQ3: discontinued ADCT-601; prioritize exatecan Q1: discontinued ADCT-602; preclinical exatecan targets (PSMA, CLDN6) highlighted Focused; leaner pipeline
Financial disciplineQ3/Q4: OpEx reductions YoY Q1: adjusted OpEx -5% YoY; adjusted net loss improved Continued discipline

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We are encouraged by the promising LOTIS-7 abstract data…potential for ZYNLONTA plus glofitamab to be a best-in-class combination” and “confident in our path forward…substantially larger opportunity in earlier lines” .
  • CFO: “Total revenues were $23M…includes $5M licensing milestone…non-GAAP operating expenses $49.1M (-5% YoY)…cash and cash equivalents $194.7M” .
  • CMO: “No new safety signals…CRS and ICANS were low-grade; ORR 95.5% and CR 90.9% among 22 evaluable patients” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Compendia/regulatory pathway: Management expects ~100 patients with ~1-year follow-up to support publication and guidelines listing; regulatory meetings planned 2H 2025 to discuss dose and path forward .
  • LOTIS-5 timing: PFS-driven; events expected in 2025; topline could be late-2025 or early-2026; early safety run-in showed CR 50%, ORR 80%, PFS 8.3 months, supporting differentiation hypothesis .
  • Safety/efficacy profile vs peers: LOTIS-7 CR rates compare favorably to other bispecific combinations (historically ~47–62% CR), with only low-grade CRS/ICANS observed .
  • Pipeline focus: ADCT-602 discontinuation has minimal cost impact; BD efforts ongoing for preclinical exatecan assets with potential near-term updates .

Estimates Context

  • Compared to S&P Global consensus, ADCT delivered a revenue beat and a modest EPS beat: revenue $23.03M vs $17.71M estimate; EPS -$0.36 vs -$0.403 estimate; 6 estimates for both metrics. Strength was primarily from license milestone recognition and lower adjusted OpEx; product revenue was stable .
    Disclosures: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue and EPS beats were driven by a one-time license milestone and cost discipline; core ZYNLONTA product sales remain stable but need earlier-line/combination uptake to inflect .
  • LOTIS-7 efficacy looks highly competitive; if confirmed with larger n (~100) and durability, compendia listing could accelerate adoption, a key near-term stock driver .
  • LOTIS-5 is a major de-risking event; PFS events by end-2025 and topline late-2025/early-2026 could reshape the regulatory path and label expansion .
  • Balance sheet provides runway into 2H 2026; interest and deferred royalty obligations remain heavy, so partnering and compendia-driven revenue growth are important levers .
  • Near-term trading setup: Watch EHA/ICML data updates and any signals on expanding LOTIS-7 enrollment to ~100; headlines around regulator meetings in 2H 2025 may re-rate probability of compendia/guidelines inclusion .
  • Medium-term thesis: ZYNLONTA combination and earlier-line opportunities, plus potential indolent lymphoma (MZL) data progression, can expand addressable market; execution on regulatory/compendia strategies is key .
  • Risk factors: Dependence on clinical outcomes and guideline inclusion; ongoing cash burn with significant interest obligations; core product revenue flat without near-term catalysts .